The Lok Sabha election results in Karnataka have thrown up a pattern — the consolidation of Vokkaliga and Lingayat (dominant castes) communities in favour of the NDA in south Karnataka, and a similar consolidation of oppressed classes in Kalyana Karnataka.
The Vokkaligas and Lingayats, the dominant land-owning communities in south and north Karnataka, respectively, have together supported the NDA that won 12 of the 14 constituencies in south Karnataka where the BJP’s ally Janata Dal (S) remains strong.
Though Lingayats and Vokkaligas had rallied behind BJP and Janata Dal (S), respectively, by the end of 2018 during the first tenure of Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, largely seen as an AHINDA face, they were in politically opposite camps. Observers believe that the two dominant communities have come together for the first time since 1996, when the united Janata Dal returned with an impressive 16 seats and propelled H.D. Deve Gowda to the post of the Prime Minister.
JD(S) says that Lingayats came in support of its (Vokkaliga) candidates in Mandya and Hassan while the Vokkaligas stood behind the BJP (Lingayat) candidates in Tumakuru and Shivamogga, besides Mysuru, where the scion of erstwhile Mysore royal family has been elected. Of the four constituencies that saw a face-off between Vokkaliga candidates, the NDA won three.
In Kalyana Karnataka, the total dominance of the Congress has been attributed to further consolidation of Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Muslim votes in favour of the party over statements by BJP leaders on “changing the Constitution”.
The absence of Janata Dal (S), which would have got a fraction of these votes, in the electoral fray led the electors from these segments to the Congress. This election has also seen an increase in the voting percentage among Muslims. The Naik community, which is dominant in Raichur, Ballari, and neighbouring constituencies, is believed to have continued backing the Congress. The Lingayats in Kalyana Karnataka voting in favour of Congress, the party believes, increased marginally though a sizeable chunk continued to support the BJP.